What happens after that?
This article was created under the impression and under the conditions of a crisis. Now that the lockdown is loosened in Austria, the question arises for many „What happens afterwards?“
„Forecasts are not the future“
Usually our future is shaped by forecasts. Forecasts are statistical statements in which the available data are used to make a statement about probable events. We don’t know much more than we know. So forecasts don’t help us to anticipate the future.
But: They help us to understand which topics and questions are now in the room.
„Corona makes the world! No! I’m making the world for myself right now! „
„Much more important than believing in forecasts is how we use our options, our inner future compass, as it were,“ says Harry Gatterer, futurologist. Whether we see a crisis as an opportunity or not does not depend on the forecast. Rather, it depends on how we deal with this crisis and the existing knowledge. Forecasting is a tool for orientation and what we think is the real scope.
So the question must be: How do YOU imagine the future? This future is the only one that is there for you.
At this point we have 3 articles from recognized specialists to read.
TIP: You can click on each one to go directly to the post.
Future researcher Mattias Horx provides food for thought with his text about the time after the crisis.
At the moment I am often asked when Corona „will be over“ and everything returns to normal. My answer: never. There are historical moments when the future changes direction. We call them bifurcations. Or deep crises. These times are now. The world as we know it is dissolving. But behind it comes a new world, the formation of which we can at least imagine. For this I would like to offer you an exercise with which we have had good experiences in vision processes at companies. We call it the RE gnosis. In contrast to the PRO Gnose, we do not look „into the future“ with this technique. But from the future BACK to today. Sounds crazy? Let’s try it:
The Re-Gnose: Our World in Fall 2020
Let’s imagine a situation in autumn, let’s say in September 2020. We are sitting in a street cafe in a big city. It is warm and people are moving on the street again. Do they move differently? Is everything the same as before? Does the wine, the cocktail, the coffee taste like it used to? Like before Corona? Or even better? Looking back, what will we be surprised about?
We will be surprised that the social waivers that we had to make seldom led to isolation. On the contrary. After an initial shock of shock, many of them were relieved that the many races, talks, and communications on multichannels suddenly came to a halt. Waiver does not necessarily mean loss, but can even open up new possibilities. Some have already experienced this, for example trying interval fasting – and suddenly enjoying the food again. Paradoxically, the physical distance that the virus forced also created new closeness. We met people who we would never have met otherwise. We contacted old friends more often, strengthened ties that had become loose and loose. Families, neighbors, friends have moved closer and sometimes even solved hidden conflicts. The social courtesy that we increasingly missed before increased.
Now in autumn 2020 there is a completely different mood at football games than in spring, when there was a lot of mass rage. We wonder why this is so.
We will be amazed at how quickly digital cultural techniques have suddenly proven themselves in practice. Teleconferencing and video conferencing, which most colleagues had always resisted (the business plane was better), turned out to be quite practical and productive. Teachers learned a lot about internet teaching. The home office became a matter of course for many – including the improvisation and time juggling that goes with it.
At the same time, apparently outdated cultural techniques experienced a renaissance. Suddenly you got not only the answering machine when you called, but real people. The virus spawned a new culture of long phone calls without a second screen. The „messages“ themselves suddenly took on a new meaning.
You really communicated again. No one was allowed to wriggle anymore. Nobody was held out anymore. This created a new culture of accessibility. The commitment.
People who never came to rest due to the hectic pace, including young people, suddenly went for long walks (a word that was previously a foreign word). Reading books suddenly became a cult.
Reality shows suddenly seemed awkward. The whole trivia trash, the infinite soul garbage that flowed through all channels. No, it didn’t completely disappear. But it was rapidly losing value. Can anyone remember the political correctness dispute? The infinite number of cultural wars for … yes, what was that all about?
Crises work primarily by dissolving old phenomena, making them superfluous … cynicism, this casual way of keeping the world off by devaluation, was suddenly abundant. The exaggeration fear hysteria in the media was limited after a short first outbreak. In addition, the infinite flood of cruel crime series reached its tipping point.
We will be surprised that drugs were found in the summer that increased the survival rate. This lowered the death rate and Corona became a virus that we just have to deal with – much like the flu and many other diseases. Medical progress helped. But we also learned that it was not so much the technology but the change in social behavior that was decisive. The decisive factor was that people could remain solidary and constructive despite radical restrictions. Human-social intelligence has helped. The much-vaunted artificial intelligence, which, as is well known, can solve everything , has only had a limited effect on the Corona.
This has shifted the relationship between technology and culture. Before the crisis, technology seemed to be the panacea, the bearer of all utopias. No one – or only a few hard-boiled people – still believe in great digital redemption today. The great technology hype is over. We are again turning our attention to the humane questions: What is man? What are we for each other?
We are astonished backwards at how much humor and humanity actually emerged in the days of the virus.
We’ll be surprised how far the economy could shrink without something like „collapse“ actually happening that was invoked before every little tax increase and government intervention. Although there was a „black April“, a deep economic downturn and a 50 percent drop in the stock market, although many companies went bankrupt, shrank or mutated into something completely different, zero never came. As if the economy were a breathing being that can also doze or sleep and even dream.
Today in autumn, there is another world economy. But global just-in-time production, with huge branched value chains, in which millions of individual parts are carted across the planet, has survived. It is currently being dismantled and reconfigured. Interim storage facilities, depots and reserves are growing again everywhere in the productions and service facilities. Local productions are booming, networks are being localized, and crafts are experiencing a renaissance. The global system is drifting towards globalization: localization of the global.
We’ll be surprised that even the loss of wealth due to the stock market crash doesn’t hurt the way it felt at first. In the new world, wealth suddenly no longer plays the decisive role. Good neighbors and a blossoming vegetable garden are more important.
Could the virus have changed our lives in a direction that it wanted to change anyway?
RE-Gnose: coping with the present through a leap into the future
Why does this type of „from the front scenario“ seem so irritatingly different from a classic forecast? This is related to the specific properties of our future sense. When we look „into the future“, we mostly only see the dangers and problems „coming up“, which pile up to insurmountable barriers. Like a locomotive out of the tunnel that runs over us. This fear barrier separates us from the future. That’s why horror futures are always the easiest to depict.
Re-gnoses, on the other hand, form a loop of knowledge in which we include ourselves, our inner change , in the future calculation. We connect internally with the future, and this creates a bridge between today and tomorrow. A „Future Mind“ future awareness arises.
If you do it right, something like future intelligence is created. We are able to anticipate not only the external „events“, but also the internal adaptations with which we react to a changed world.
It feels very different from a forecast that always has something dead, sterile in its apodictic character. We leave the stiffness of fear and come back to the vitality that belongs to every true future.
We all know the feeling of successfully overcoming fear. When we go to the dentist for treatment, we are worried well in advance. We lose control on the dentist’s chair and it hurts before it hurts. In anticipating this feeling, we increase ourselves in fears that can completely overwhelm us. However, when we have survived the procedure, there is a feeling of coping: the world looks young and fresh again and we are suddenly full of energy.
Coping means: coping. Neurobiologically, fear adrenaline is replaced by dopamine, a type of endogenous drug for the future. While adrenaline leads us to flee or fight (which is not really productive in the dentist’s chair, nor in the fight against corona), dopamine opens our brain synapses: we are excited about what is to come, curious, foresighted. If we have a healthy dopamine level, we make plans, we have visions that lead us to the forward-looking action.
Surprisingly, many experience exactly this in the corona crisis. A massive loss of control suddenly turns into a veritable intoxication of the positive. After a period of bewilderment and fear, an inner strength arises. The world „ends“, but in the experience that we are still there, a kind of being new arises inside.
In the middle of civilization’s shutdown, we run through forests or parks, or across almost empty spaces. But this is not an apocalypse, but a new beginning. This is how it turns out: Change begins as a changed pattern of expectations, perceptions and world connections. Sometimes it is precisely the break with the routines, the familiar, that releases our sense of the future again. The idea and certainty that everything could be very different – even in the better.
Maybe we’ll even be surprised that Trump will be voted out in November. The AFD shows serious fraying phenomena because a malicious, divisive policy does not fit a corona world. The Corona crisis made it clear that those who want to incite people against each other have nothing to contribute to real questions about the future. When things get serious, the destructive that lives in populism becomes clear. Politics in its original sense as the formation of social responsibilities got this crisis a new credibility, a new legitimacy. Precisely because it had to act „authoritarian“, politics created trust in society. Science also experienced an astonishing renaissance in the probation crisis. Virologists and epidemiologists became media stars, but also „futuristic“ philosophers, sociologists, psychologists, anthropologists, who were previously on the sidelines of the polarized debates, got voice and weight again.
Fake News, on the other hand, rapidly lost market value. Conspiracy theories also suddenly looked like shopkeepers, even though they were offered like sour beer.
A virus that accelerates evolution
Deep crises also point to another basic principle of change: the trend-countertrend synthesis.
The new world after Corona – or better with Corona – arises from the disruption of the megatrend connectivity . Politically and economically this phenomenon is also called „globalization“. The interruption of connectivity – through border closings, separations, foreclosures, quarantines – does not lead to abolishing the connections. But to reorganize the connectomes that hold our world together and carry it into the future. There is a phase shift in the socio-economic systems.
The coming world will appreciate distance again – and this will make connectedness more qualitative. Autonomy and dependency, opening and closing are rebalanced. This can make the world more complex, but also more stable. This transformation is largely a blind evolutionary process – because the one fails, the new, viable, prevails. This makes you dizzy at first, but then it shows its inner meaning: what connects the paradoxes on a new level is sustainable.
This process of complexation – not to be confused with complication – can also be consciously designed by people. Those who can, who speak the language of the coming complexity, will be the leaders of tomorrow. The hope-bearers. The coming Gretas.
„Through Corona, we will adapt our entire attitude towards life – in the sense of our existence as living beings in the midst of other life forms.“
Slavo Zizek at the height of the corona crisis in mid-March
Every deep crisis leaves a story , a narrative that points far into the future. One of the strongest visions left by the corona virus are the Italians making music on the balconies. The second vision send us the satellite images that suddenly show the industrial areas of China and Italy free of smog. In 2020, human CO2 emissions will decrease for the first time. This fact will do something to us.
If the virus can do such a thing, can we possibly do it? Maybe the virus was just a messenger from the future. His drastic message is: Human civilization has become too dense, too fast, too overheated. It is racing too much in a certain direction in which there is no future.
But it can reinvent itself.
Music on the balconies!
This is how the future goes.
Source: Matthias Horx (www.horx.com) and his future institute www.zukunftsinstitut.de
© Kurier/Juerg Christandl
Li Edelkoort, the most famous trend researcher in the world shares her thoughts and predictions about the corona crisis
Disruptive power of the Covid-19 crisis by Lidewij Edelkoort
Trend researcher Lidewij Edelkoort predicts an unprecedented global recession for the fashion industry – not in a monetary sense, but in view of the disruptive power of the Covid-19 crisis. At the same time, she sees this as an unleashing force that will change consumption patterns in the long term.
„Suddenly fashion shows look bizarre and out of place and advertisements from travel agencies are perceived as invasive and ridiculous.“
It will take a lot of insight and courage to build an economy with new values and new access to production, transportation, sales and retail, said Edelkoort. She hopes that the actors will seize the opportunity and establish a different and better system. A system that shows more respect for human work and human conditions.
Respect for human conditions
The trend researcher knows that the air above the industrial centers has cleared after just two months of reduced production operations in China. Including air and boat trips, vacation trips, business trips and transport, there is considerable potential for a positive environmental effect.
Edelkoort hopes that Covid-19 will bring a return to local production and craftsmanship and that it will be given a corresponding appreciation.
“Local industries and activities would gain momentum and come to power from civic initiatives such as barter systems, round tables, farmers markets and street events, dance and singing competitions, and a very dominant DIY aesthetic. My forecast for the future for the age of amateurs seems to come much faster than I expected. “
shortened; Source: https://www.vogue.de/mode/artikel/li-edelkoort-prognosen-zur-coronakrise
© John Phillips
Andreas Herde and Oliver Burauen, Human Ressources Specialists
We are currently in the greatest crisis of the 21st century, triggered by the Corona virus. And let’s face it: Today nobody can predict with certainty when and how this crisis will end and what legacy it will leave behind in the form of changes in all areas of life.
1. Changes in the labor market with various currents
The crisis will no doubt trigger violent upheavals in the labor market. Despite all efforts by companies and politics, there will be inevitable bankruptcies with layoffs. The only thing that is currently unclear is their extent. At least parts of the affected entrepreneurs and employees, regardless of whether voluntarily or inevitably, will reorient themselves in their professional activities.
We will see three currents:
- We forecast a kind of new start-up period with a more local and regional orientation than before. Globalization has revealed its weaknesses in the crisis.
- We are currently learning painfully that it is not always wise that certain products, which are sometimes simple but can become very important, are only produced in the Far East for cost reasons. The desire for more self-sufficiency will be met by a wave of new founders.
- We will also see a further reinforcement of the wish for meaningful professional activity that already existed before the crisis. The meaningfulness of the professional activity will gain ground again compared to the turbo-capitalist orientation.
2. Upgrading job profiles
We will also see an appreciation of many job profiles, the importance of which only becomes clear in the current crisis. This includes, for example, the nursing professions. Unfortunately, their importance for our community has so far led to a shadowy existence. After the crisis, we will see that esteem for nurses and nurses increases and that their reputation will be comparable to publicly respected professions such as the fire brigade. And that’s good. But we also expect more fairness when evaluating the far too often underestimated activities of many other everyday heroes, for example the employees in the food retail trade. Here, we admit, our forecast mixes a little with the hope that our collective memory here will go well beyond the period immediately after the crisis.
3. Virtualization, flexibility and digitization of the working world are progressing
The virtualization, flexibilization and digitization of daily work processes, which were practically forced in the current crisis, is just the baptism of fire. A medical virus is currently becoming a driver of digitization and is accelerating a development that has so far been slowed down by traditional ideas. Tools such as home office, collaborative digital work or video conferences, which have been viewed with skepticism by many executives, are currently without alternative. And lo and behold! It works. This empirical value enforced by Corona will have an impact. Attendance culture and the control instinct of many managers are shaking their foundations.
4. Leadership culture is being overhauled
The development just described will also have a massive impact on the leadership culture. Executives who rely on control and presence in old school are painfully finding that their leadership style is out of date because there is a completely different way. And better. Already during the crisis it became clear that modern leadership requires moderation instead of control, the granting of free space instead of restrictions. This spirit of modern, forward-looking and trusting leadership is now permanently out of the bottle. We hope and at least believe that.
5. Leadership culture is being overhauled
In the current crisis, employees see very clearly how their employers treat them, how big the commitment of the companies for their workforce really is and also in times of crisis. The employees will remember disloyalty and breaches of trust very carefully.
6. Gen Z will have new experiences in a changed environment
Generation Z has so far mostly got to know the labor market as a land of plenty. In a post-crisis job market environment, these young people will find significantly different conditions. Not every wish will be read from their lips and will be fulfilled promptly. This will be a new experience for this group and they will have to adapt to these changing conditions. It will be very exciting to see the flexibility and willingness with which the young colleagues will respond to these changed conditions.
Andreas Herde and Oliver Burauen